Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Unia Solec Kujawski zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 77,7 pkt (od 63 do 90 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Tłuchowia Tłuchowo (25%), Pogoń Mogilno (18%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski (83%), Noteć Gębice (77%), Cuiavia Inowrocław (61%), Łokietek Brześć Kujawski (60%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unia Solec Kujawski | 77,7 ± 6,8 | 63–90 | 51% | 91% | 0% |
| 2 | Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | 73,8 ± 7,4 | 59–87 | 25% | 78% | 0% |
| 3 | Pogoń Mogilno | 72,6 ± 6,8 | 59–85 | 18% | 75% | 0% |
| 4 | Unia Wąbrzeźno | 64,7 ± 7,7 | 49–79 | 5% | 30% | 0% |
| 5 | Wisła Dobrzyń n/Wisłą | 60,6 ± 8,0 | 45–76 | 1% | 16% | 0% |
| 6 | Sparta Brodnica | 55,2 ± 7,8 | 40–69 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 7 | Mustang Ostaszewo | 54,1 ± 7,6 | 39–69 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | Pomorzanin Toruń | 50,6 ± 8,0 | 35–66 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | Kujawiak Kowal | 47,2 ± 8,0 | 32–64 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 10 | Start ECO-POL Pruszcz | 47,0 ± 7,9 | 32–62 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 11 | Rawys CEO Raciąż | 41,5 ± 7,7 | 27–57 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 12 | Skrwa Skrwilno | 36,8 ± 7,8 | 23–53 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 13 | Lech Rypin | 35,8 ± 7,6 | 22–51 | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| 14 | Victoria Czernikowo | 32,5 ± 7,3 | 20–48 | 0% | 0% | 46% |
| 15 | Cuiavia Inowrocław | 30,1 ± 7,6 | 16–46 | 0% | 0% | 61% |
| 16 | Łokietek Brześć Kujawski | 29,9 ± 7,6 | 16–46 | 0% | 0% | 60% |
| 17 | Noteć Gębice | 26,9 ± 7,4 | 14–43 | 0% | 0% | 77% |
| 18 | Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski | 24,5 ± 7,1 | 12–39 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unia Solec Kujawski | 51% | 26% | 15% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tłuchowia Tłuchowo | 25% | 28% | 25% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń Mogilno | 18% | 29% | 27% | 15% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Unia Wąbrzeźno | – | 10% | 16% | 26% | 18% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wisła Dobrzyń n/Wisłą | – | 5% | 9% | 18% | 22% | 16% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sparta Brodnica | – | – | – | 9% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mustang Ostaszewo | – | – | – | 7% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pomorzanin Toruń | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kujawiak Kowal | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Start ECO-POL Pruszcz | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Rawys CEO Raciąż | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – |
| Skrwa Skrwilno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 9% | – | – |
| Lech Rypin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – |
| Victoria Czernikowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 7% |
| Cuiavia Inowrocław | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 13% |
| Łokietek Brześć Kujawski | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 14% |
| Noteć Gębice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 13% | 16% | 24% | 24% |
| Orlęta Aleksandrów Kujawski | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 9% | 16% | 21% | 36% |