Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Stomil Olsztyn SA zostaje mistrzem w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 70,3 pkt (od 43 do 85 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze MMKS Concordia Elbląg (19%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: GKS Mamry Giżycko (64%), KS Polonia Pasłęk (52%), MKS Zatoka Braniewo (50%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stomil Olsztyn SA | 70,3 ± 10,9 | 43–85 | 64% | 80% | 0% |
| 2 | MMKS Concordia Elbląg | 61,4 ± 12,4 | 33–79 | 19% | 60% | 0% |
| 3 | KKS Granica Kętrzyn | 57,5 ± 11,5 | 32–74 | 8% | 45% | 0% |
| 4 | BKS Tęcza Biskupiec | 54,9 ± 11,7 | 29–72 | 3% | 38% | 1% |
| 5 | MKS Rominta Gołdap | 51,8 ± 11,7 | 28–69 | 1% | 23% | 1% |
| 6 | MLKS Znicz Biała Piska | 51,1 ± 13,0 | 27–72 | 4% | 27% | 1% |
| 7 | OKS Sokół Ostróda | 45,7 ± 12,0 | 22–65 | 0% | 8% | 3% |
| 8 | GKS Pisa Eco-Ter Barczewo | 44,9 ± 13,0 | 21–67 | 1% | 11% | 5% |
| 9 | DKS Dobre Miasto | 39,9 ± 13,3 | 17–63 | 0% | 5% | 12% |
| 10 | MKS Start Nidzica | 35,1 ± 13,0 | 13–57 | 0% | 1% | 21% |
| 11 | MKS Mazur Ełk | 34,1 ± 12,4 | 13–57 | 0% | 1% | 21% |
| 12 | GKS LZS Wikielec | 32,2 ± 12,7 | 12–55 | 0% | 0% | 28% |
| 13 | UKS Naki Olsztyn | 27,7 ± 11,6 | 10–51 | 0% | 0% | 39% |
| 14 | MKS Zatoka Braniewo | 25,2 ± 12,7 | 6–51 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 15 | KS Polonia Pasłęk | 23,8 ± 12,0 | 6–48 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| 16 | GKS Mamry Giżycko | 20,9 ± 12,3 | 5–49 | 0% | 0% | 64% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stomil Olsztyn SA | 64% | 12% | 5% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MMKS Concordia Elbląg | 19% | 29% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KKS Granica Kętrzyn | 8% | 20% | 17% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BKS Tęcza Biskupiec | – | 15% | 20% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Rominta Gołdap | – | 7% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS Znicz Biała Piska | – | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKS Sokół Ostróda | – | – | 6% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Pisa Eco-Ter Barczewo | – | – | 7% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – |
| DKS Dobre Miasto | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | – | – |
| MKS Start Nidzica | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 7% | – |
| MKS Mazur Ełk | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 7% | – |
| GKS LZS Wikielec | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 6% |
| UKS Naki Olsztyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 10% |
| MKS Zatoka Braniewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 17% | 21% |
| KS Polonia Pasłęk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 21% |
| GKS Mamry Giżycko | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 11% | 18% | 35% |