Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: UNIA II SKIERNIEWICE SP. Z.O.O. zostaje liderem po jesieni w 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 37,5 pkt (od 32 do 40 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze Start Brzeziny (12%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNIA II SKIERNIEWICE SP. Z.O.O. | 37,5 ± 2,3 | 32–40 | 86% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | Start Brzeziny | 33,4 ± 2,4 | 29–39 | 12% | 85% | 0% |
| 3 | MAZOVIA Rawa Mazowiecka | 31,2 ± 2,9 | 25–36 | 2% | 54% | 0% |
| 4 | POGOŃ Bełchów | 29,8 ± 2,6 | 25–35 | 0% | 32% | 0% |
| 5 | LUKS WITONIANKA Witonia | 29,0 ± 2,7 | 24–34 | 0% | 22% | 0% |
| 6 | ORLĘTA Cielądz | 26,3 ± 3,1 | 20–33 | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| 7 | UKS SMS Łódź | 24,1 ± 2,6 | 19–28 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | OLIMPIA Chąśno | 20,8 ± 3,1 | 14–26 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 9 | LKS Gałkówek | 20,0 ± 3,1 | 14–27 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | KKS Koluszki | 20,2 ± 2,4 | 16–25 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | SAP ANDRESPOLIA | 17,3 ± 3,0 | 12–23 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 12 | LAKTOZA Łyszkowice | 16,0 ± 2,7 | 12–22 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 13 | WIDOK Skierniewice | 12,8 ± 2,5 | 9–18 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| 14 | GKS Korona Łaguszew | 12,2 ± 2,3 | 8–17 | 0% | 0% | 62% |
| 15 | JUTRZENKA Drzewce | 10,2 ± 3,2 | 4–17 | 0% | 0% | 73% |
| 16 | JUVENIA Wysokienice | 8,3 ± 2,3 | 6–14 | 0% | 0% | 96% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNIA II SKIERNIEWICE SP. Z.O.O. | 86% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Start Brzeziny | 12% | 44% | 29% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MAZOVIA Rawa Mazowiecka | – | 25% | 27% | 22% | 14% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Bełchów | – | 12% | 20% | 27% | 26% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LUKS WITONIANKA Witonia | – | 6% | 16% | 26% | 27% | 16% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORLĘTA Cielądz | – | – | – | 12% | 18% | 27% | 20% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| UKS SMS Łódź | – | – | – | – | 9% | 25% | 32% | 19% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OLIMPIA Chąśno | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 16% | 23% | 21% | 14% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Gałkówek | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 18% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| KKS Koluszki | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 17% | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAP ANDRESPOLIA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 18% | 27% | 21% | 9% | – | – | – |
| LAKTOZA Łyszkowice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 20% | 32% | 18% | 9% | – | – |
| WIDOK Skierniewice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 13% | 27% | 28% | 21% | – |
| GKS Korona Łaguszew | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 26% | 36% | 19% | 7% |
| JUTRZENKA Drzewce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 14% | 16% | 35% | 22% |
| JUVENIA Wysokienice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 21% | 67% |