Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: KS Lublinianka zostaje mistrzem w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 70,2 pkt (od 58 do 81 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Łada 1945 Biłgoraj (41%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Orlęta Łuków (91%), Bug Hanna (59%), Górnik Łęczna U21 (58%), Świdniczanka Świdnik (54%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KS Lublinianka | 70,2 ± 6,1 | 58–81 | 44% | 89% | 0% |
| 2 | Łada 1945 Biłgoraj | 70,0 ± 6,4 | 57–82 | 41% | 88% | 0% |
| 3 | Avia II Świdnik | 61,2 ± 6,8 | 47–73 | 6% | 44% | 0% |
| 4 | Lewart Lubartów | 61,6 ± 7,3 | 46–75 | 7% | 45% | 0% |
| 5 | Orlęta-Spomlek Radzyń Podl. | 57,1 ± 7,1 | 43–71 | 2% | 21% | 0% |
| 6 | Powiślak Końskowola | 54,4 ± 7,0 | 40–68 | 1% | 12% | 0% |
| 7 | Victoria Łukowa | 38,5 ± 7,4 | 25–53 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| 8 | Janowianka Janów Lubelski | 37,0 ± 7,2 | 23–51 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 9 | Granit Bychawa | 35,2 ± 6,7 | 23–49 | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 10 | Tomasovia Tomaszów Lubelski | 34,6 ± 7,3 | 21–49 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| 11 | Tur Milejów | 30,0 ± 6,8 | 17–43 | 0% | 0% | 37% |
| 12 | Ruch Ryki | 27,6 ± 6,9 | 16–42 | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| 13 | Świdniczanka Świdnik | 27,4 ± 6,7 | 15–41 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| 14 | Górnik Łęczna U21 | 26,7 ± 6,2 | 16–40 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 15 | Bug Hanna | 26,2 ± 6,4 | 14–40 | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| 16 | Orlęta Łuków | 19,0 ± 5,9 | 9–32 | 0% | 0% | 91% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Lublinianka | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Łada 1945 Biłgoraj | 41% | 32% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Avia II Świdnik | 6% | 14% | 25% | 25% | 18% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Lewart Lubartów | 7% | 15% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Orlęta-Spomlek Radzyń Podl. | – | 7% | 12% | 20% | 29% | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Powiślak Końskowola | – | – | 8% | 15% | 26% | 35% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Victoria Łukowa | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 24% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| Janowianka Janów Lubelski | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| Granit Bychawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – |
| Tomasovia Tomaszów Lubelski | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 5% | – | – |
| Tur Milejów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9% | – |
| Ruch Ryki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 8% |
| Świdniczanka Świdnik | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Górnik Łęczna U21 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 8% |
| Bug Hanna | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 11% |
| Orlęta Łuków | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 19% | 56% |