Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: VICTORIA SZCZANIEC zostaje liderem po jesieni w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 44,6 pkt (od 38 do 49 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze GRUPA CHMIEL POLONIA SŁUBICE (35%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VICTORIA SZCZANIEC | 44,6 ± 3,0 | 38–49 | 64% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | GRUPA CHMIEL POLONIA SŁUBICE | 42,7 ± 2,8 | 36–46 | 35% | 100% | 0% |
| 3 | KORONA KOŻUCHÓW | 34,7 ± 2,8 | 29–40 | 0% | 80% | 0% |
| 4 | CZARNI ŻAGAŃ 1957 | 30,0 ± 3,0 | 24–36 | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 5 | PIAST KARNIN | 28,8 ± 3,4 | 22–35 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 6 | TS CELULOZA KOSTRZYN NAD ODRĄ | 28,0 ± 2,9 | 22–33 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 7 | POGOŃ ŚWIEBODZIN | 28,0 ± 3,0 | 22–33 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 8 | LECHIA II ZIELONA GÓRA | 26,7 ± 3,0 | 21–32 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | ODRA NIETKÓW | 26,4 ± 3,1 | 20–33 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 10 | ILANKA RZEPIN | 23,7 ± 2,6 | 18–29 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | PIAST IŁOWA | 21,8 ± 3,5 | 16–29 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | RÓŻA RÓŻANKI | 20,3 ± 3,0 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | PROMIEŃ ŻARY | 18,5 ± 3,1 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 14 | DOZAMET NOWA SÓL | 13,7 ± 2,8 | 9–19 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| 15 | POGOŃ SKWIERZYNA | 13,7 ± 3,1 | 9–21 | 0% | 0% | 36% |
| 16 | SPROTAVIA SZPROTAWA | 12,3 ± 3,1 | 7–19 | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| 17 | STAL SULĘCIN | 10,2 ± 2,7 | 6–16 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
| 18 | ŁUCZNIK POLNED STRZELCE KRAJ. | 7,9 ± 2,6 | 4–14 | 0% | 0% | 93% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VICTORIA SZCZANIEC | 64% | 34% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GRUPA CHMIEL POLONIA SŁUBICE | 35% | 62% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KORONA KOŻUCHÓW | – | – | 77% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI ŻAGAŃ 1957 | – | – | 9% | 27% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST KARNIN | – | – | 5% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| TS CELULOZA KOSTRZYN NAD ODRĄ | – | – | – | 13% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ ŚWIEBODZIN | – | – | – | 11% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LECHIA II ZIELONA GÓRA | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ODRA NIETKÓW | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ILANKA RZEPIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 19% | 26% | 19% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST IŁOWA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 16% | 22% | 23% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – |
| RÓŻA RÓŻANKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 19% | 32% | 24% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| PROMIEŃ ŻARY | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 19% | 35% | 16% | 7% | – | – | – |
| DOZAMET NOWA SÓL | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 27% | 28% | 19% | 8% | – |
| POGOŃ SKWIERZYNA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 23% | 26% | 22% | 13% | – |
| SPROTAVIA SZPROTAWA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 17% | 20% | 26% | 21% | 10% |
| STAL SULĘCIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 11% | 19% | 37% | 26% |
| ŁUCZNIK POLNED STRZELCE KRAJ. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 20% | 62% |