Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Czarni Pruszcz Gdański zostaje mistrzem w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 81,5 pkt (od 68 do 92 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Cartusia Kartuzy (31%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Sparta Sycewice (97%), Dolina Speranda Niepoględzie (96%), Chojniczanka II Chojnice (38%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Czarni Pruszcz Gdański | 81,5 ± 6,3 | 68–92 | 59% | 97% | 0% |
| 2 | Cartusia Kartuzy | 77,8 ± 6,3 | 65–89 | 31% | 94% | 0% |
| 3 | Arka II Gdynia | 72,4 ± 6,7 | 59–84 | 9% | 76% | 0% |
| 4 | Gryf Wejherowo | 61,1 ± 7,3 | 47–75 | 0% | 12% | 0% |
| 5 | Pogoń Lębork | 59,8 ± 7,2 | 45–74 | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 6 | Gryf Słupsk | 58,5 ± 7,4 | 44–73 | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 7 | Stoczniowiec Gdańsk | 54,9 ± 7,4 | 40–69 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | KP Starogard Gdański | 54,4 ± 7,5 | 39–68 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 9 | Jaguar Gdańsk AP | 47,3 ± 7,4 | 33–61 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | Wierzyca Pelplin | 42,9 ± 7,8 | 28–58 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 11 | Radunia Stężyca | 41,4 ± 7,0 | 28–55 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 12 | Sokół Bożepole Wielkie | 39,7 ± 7,2 | 27–54 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 13 | Stolem Gniewino | 37,4 ± 7,7 | 23–53 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 14 | Anioły Garczegorze | 34,1 ± 6,7 | 22–48 | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 15 | Powiśle Dzierzgoń | 31,5 ± 7,3 | 18–46 | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| 16 | Chojniczanka II Chojnice | 30,5 ± 7,4 | 17–46 | 0% | 0% | 38% |
| 17 | Dolina Speranda Niepoględzie | 16,1 ± 6,2 | 6–30 | 0% | 0% | 96% |
| 18 | Sparta Sycewice | 15,9 ± 5,7 | 7–28 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czarni Pruszcz Gdański | 59% | 28% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Cartusia Kartuzy | 31% | 41% | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Arka II Gdynia | 9% | 26% | 41% | 15% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gryf Wejherowo | – | – | 10% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń Lębork | – | – | 8% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 15% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gryf Słupsk | – | – | 6% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stoczniowiec Gdańsk | – | – | – | 9% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KP Starogard Gdański | – | – | – | 7% | 14% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Jaguar Gdańsk AP | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 14% | 20% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wierzyca Pelplin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 8% | – | – | – | – |
| Radunia Stężyca | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| Sokół Bożepole Wielkie | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 9% | – | – | – |
| Stolem Gniewino | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 9% | – | – |
| Anioły Garczegorze | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 21% | 13% | – | – |
| Powiśle Dzierzgoń | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 24% | 5% | – |
| Chojniczanka II Chojnice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 28% | 8% | – |
| Dolina Speranda Niepoględzie | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 40% | 47% |
| Sparta Sycewice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 41% | 49% |