Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: PATRIA Buk zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 68,2 pkt (od 56 do 79 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Luboński KS Luboń (25%), ORKAN Chorzemin (19%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: SOKÓŁ Rakoniewice (100%), NKS Niepruszewo (78%), SPÓJNIA Strykowo (70%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PATRIA Buk | 68,2 ± 6,0 | 56–79 | 46% | 88% | 0% |
| 2 | Luboński KS Luboń | 65,0 ± 6,1 | 52–76 | 25% | 77% | 0% |
| 3 | ORKAN Chorzemin | 64,0 ± 6,4 | 51–76 | 19% | 71% | 0% |
| 4 | WIELKOPOLSKA Komorniki | 59,2 ± 7,0 | 45–72 | 8% | 41% | 0% |
| 5 | KS Gminy Brodnica Manieczki | 52,6 ± 7,2 | 38–67 | 1% | 11% | 0% |
| 6 | KS Canarinhos Skórzewo | 51,6 ± 6,9 | 39–65 | 1% | 9% | 0% |
| 7 | HELIOS Czempiń | 47,4 ± 7,1 | 33–61 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | DĄB Kębłowo | 42,4 ± 7,0 | 30–56 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | APR Lampart Poznań | 40,3 ± 7,6 | 26–55 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 10 | KS 1920 Mosina | 37,2 ± 7,1 | 23–51 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 11 | ORKAN Konarzewo | 35,7 ± 7,0 | 22–49 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 12 | PROMIEŃ Opalenica | 31,9 ± 6,5 | 20–45 | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 13 | ORZEŁ Granowo | 30,7 ± 6,2 | 20–43 | 0% | 0% | 19% |
| 14 | SPÓJNIA Strykowo | 23,1 ± 6,3 | 11–36 | 0% | 0% | 70% |
| 15 | NKS Niepruszewo | 21,4 ± 6,2 | 11–35 | 0% | 0% | 78% |
| 16 | SOKÓŁ Rakoniewice | 10,3 ± 4,7 | 3–21 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIA Buk | 46% | 26% | 15% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Luboński KS Luboń | 25% | 29% | 22% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORKAN Chorzemin | 19% | 25% | 27% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| WIELKOPOLSKA Komorniki | 8% | 14% | 19% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Gminy Brodnica Manieczki | – | – | 7% | 16% | 21% | 20% | 15% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Canarinhos Skórzewo | – | – | 6% | 12% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HELIOS Czempiń | – | – | – | 7% | 13% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DĄB Kębłowo | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| APR Lampart Poznań | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – |
| KS 1920 Mosina | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 15% | 13% | 9% | – | – | – |
| ORKAN Konarzewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 11% | 6% | – | – |
| PROMIEŃ Opalenica | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 12% | – | – |
| ORZEŁ Granowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 14% | – | – |
| SPÓJNIA Strykowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 15% | 33% | 31% | 6% |
| NKS Niepruszewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 25% | 44% | 9% |
| SOKÓŁ Rakoniewice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 85% |