Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: POGOŃ OLEŚNICA zostaje mistrzem w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 77,7 pkt (od 66 do 86 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze CZARNI JELCZ LASKOWICE (23%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: POLONIA MIŁOSZYCE (79%), WKS WILCZYCE (77%), Akademia Skra Wojnowice (57%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | POGOŃ OLEŚNICA | 77,7 ± 5,4 | 66–86 | 74% | 99% | 0% |
| 2 | CZARNI JELCZ LASKOWICE | 72,0 ± 5,7 | 60–82 | 23% | 95% | 0% |
| 3 | CZARNI CHRZĄSTAWA | 60,0 ± 6,8 | 47–72 | 2% | 40% | 0% |
| 4 | PERŁA WĘGRÓW | 59,8 ± 7,3 | 44–72 | 1% | 42% | 0% |
| 5 | SOKÓŁ MARCINKOWICE | 55,0 ± 6,9 | 41–68 | 0% | 18% | 0% |
| 6 | DĄB DOBROSZYCE | 48,8 ± 7,2 | 35–63 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 7 | KS BOGUSZYCE OSIEDLE | 44,5 ± 6,8 | 31–58 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 8 | KS GRĘBOSZYCE | 42,1 ± 7,7 | 27–57 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | ZBYTOWA | 37,3 ± 7,4 | 23–52 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 10 | AP OLEŚNICA | 35,8 ± 7,1 | 23–50 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 11 | DŁUGOŁĘKA 2000 | 32,3 ± 6,9 | 20–46 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 12 | WIDAWA KIEŁCZÓW | 30,5 ± 7,1 | 18–45 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 13 | LZS Solniki Małe | 23,4 ± 7,0 | 10–37 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 14 | Akademia Skra Wojnowice | 22,7 ± 7,0 | 10–38 | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| 15 | WKS WILCZYCE | 19,2 ± 6,3 | 8–32 | 0% | 0% | 77% |
| 16 | POLONIA MIŁOSZYCE | 18,7 ± 5,9 | 9–31 | 0% | 0% | 79% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POGOŃ OLEŚNICA | 74% | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI JELCZ LASKOWICE | 23% | 60% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI CHRZĄSTAWA | – | 8% | 30% | 30% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PERŁA WĘGRÓW | – | 8% | 33% | 27% | 17% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SOKÓŁ MARCINKOWICE | – | – | 15% | 24% | 28% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DĄB DOBROSZYCE | – | – | – | 8% | 17% | 26% | 20% | 13% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS BOGUSZYCE OSIEDLE | – | – | – | – | 9% | 16% | 24% | 21% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS GRĘBOSZYCE | – | – | – | – | 6% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – |
| ZBYTOWA | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 10% | – | – | – | – |
| AP OLEŚNICA | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – |
| DŁUGOŁĘKA 2000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 7% | – | – |
| WIDAWA KIEŁCZÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 10% | 5% | – |
| LZS Solniki Małe | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 14% |
| Akademia Skra Wojnowice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 17% |
| WKS WILCZYCE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | 32% |
| POLONIA MIŁOSZYCE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 18% | 27% | 34% |