Uwaga. W teście na sezonie 2025/26 model w tej lidze nie był lepszy od prostego punktu odniesienia — traktuj prognozy ostrożnie.
Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: KS Cracovia II SA zostaje mistrzem w 8 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 77,6 pkt (od 63 do 89 w 95% przebiegów). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Watra Białka Tatrzańska (99%), Błękitni Modlnica (98%), Poprad Muszyna (88%), MKS Limanovia w Limanowej (56%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KS Cracovia II SA | 77,6 ± 6,7 | 63–89 | 82% | 98% | 0% |
| 2 | Bruk-Bet Termalica II Nieciecza | 63,0 ± 7,1 | 49–76 | 6% | 51% | 0% |
| 3 | Dalin Myślenice | 60,4 ± 7,4 | 46–75 | 3% | 37% | 0% |
| 4 | Glinik Gorlice | 59,9 ± 7,5 | 45–74 | 3% | 36% | 0% |
| 5 | Victoria Jaworzno | 59,5 ± 7,6 | 45–74 | 4% | 35% | 0% |
| 6 | Orzeł Ryczów | 57,0 ± 7,7 | 42–72 | 2% | 23% | 0% |
| 7 | Hutnik II Kraków | 51,2 ± 7,7 | 37–66 | 0% | 7% | 2% |
| 8 | Wolania Wola Rzędzińska | 49,6 ± 7,4 | 36–64 | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| 9 | Beskid Andrychów | 48,0 ± 7,7 | 34–63 | 0% | 3% | 6% |
| 10 | Pcimianka Pcim | 47,1 ± 7,2 | 34–62 | 0% | 2% | 5% |
| 11 | Kalwarianka Kalwaria Zebrzydowska | 46,6 ± 7,6 | 32–61 | 0% | 2% | 7% |
| 12 | Lubań Maniowy | 45,7 ± 7,5 | 31–61 | 0% | 2% | 8% |
| 13 | BKS Hal-Mont Bochnia | 44,4 ± 7,4 | 30–59 | 0% | 1% | 11% |
| 14 | Unia Tarnów | 42,1 ± 7,2 | 29–57 | 0% | 1% | 17% |
| 15 | MKS Limanovia w Limanowej | 35,0 ± 7,1 | 22–50 | 0% | 0% | 56% |
| 16 | Poprad Muszyna | 27,3 ± 6,9 | 15–42 | 0% | 0% | 88% |
| 17 | Błękitni Modlnica | 20,6 ± 6,8 | 9–35 | 0% | 0% | 98% |
| 18 | Watra Białka Tatrzańska | 19,4 ± 6,3 | 8–33 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Cracovia II SA | 82% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bruk-Bet Termalica II Nieciecza | 6% | 26% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dalin Myślenice | – | 16% | 17% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Glinik Gorlice | – | 15% | 18% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Victoria Jaworzno | – | 15% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Orzeł Ryczów | – | 9% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Hutnik II Kraków | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wolania Wola Rzędzińska | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – |
| Beskid Andrychów | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| Pcimianka Pcim | – | – | – | – | 5% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – |
| Kalwarianka Kalwaria Zebrzydowska | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – |
| Lubań Maniowy | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – |
| BKS Hal-Mont Bochnia | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – |
| Unia Tarnów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 12% | – | – | – |
| MKS Limanovia w Limanowej | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 6% | – |
| Poprad Muszyna | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 15% | 38% | 24% | 10% |
| Błękitni Modlnica | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 17% | 37% | 39% |
| Watra Białka Tatrzańska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 31% | 50% |