Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: RKS Okęcie zostaje mistrzem w 7 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 71,7 pkt (od 58 do 83 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze POLONIA III WARSZAWA S.A. (31%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: UNIA WARSZAWA (99%), CITY WILANÓW (93%), Korona Góra Kalwaria (81%), KS Orzeł Baniocha (68%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RKS Okęcie | 71,7 ± 6,7 | 58–83 | 66% | 97% | 0% |
| 2 | POLONIA III WARSZAWA S.A. | 67,0 ± 6,7 | 53–79 | 31% | 91% | 0% |
| 3 | MKS Piast Piastów | 55,0 ± 7,3 | 40–69 | 2% | 37% | 0% |
| 4 | KS Laura Chylice | 54,5 ± 7,5 | 40–69 | 1% | 34% | 0% |
| 5 | KS Teresin | 51,2 ± 7,3 | 37–66 | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 6 | KS Partyzant Leszno | 47,1 ± 7,2 | 33–61 | 0% | 8% | 1% |
| 7 | LKS Jedność Żabieniec | 46,2 ± 7,3 | 32–60 | 0% | 7% | 2% |
| 8 | KS Promyk Nowa Sucha | 42,5 ± 7,1 | 29–56 | 0% | 2% | 5% |
| 9 | GKS Pogoń II Grodzisk | 41,7 ± 7,1 | 28–56 | 0% | 2% | 7% |
| 10 | KS GKS PODOLSZYN | 40,1 ± 7,1 | 27–54 | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| 11 | KS Orzeł Kampinos | 38,3 ± 7,2 | 25–53 | 0% | 1% | 15% |
| 12 | SEMP Ursynów | 37,4 ± 7,5 | 23–52 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| 13 | KS Orzeł Baniocha | 28,2 ± 6,6 | 16–42 | 0% | 0% | 68% |
| 14 | Korona Góra Kalwaria | 25,5 ± 6,6 | 14–40 | 0% | 0% | 81% |
| 15 | CITY WILANÓW | 19,8 ± 6,6 | 8–34 | 0% | 0% | 93% |
| 16 | UNIA WARSZAWA | 13,8 ± 5,5 | 5–26 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKS Okęcie | 66% | 26% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POLONIA III WARSZAWA S.A. | 31% | 47% | 13% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Piast Piastów | – | 10% | 25% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Laura Chylice | – | 8% | 24% | 22% | 15% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Teresin | – | – | 14% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Partyzant Leszno | – | – | 6% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Jedność Żabieniec | – | – | 5% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Promyk Nowa Sucha | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Pogoń II Grodzisk | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| KS GKS PODOLSZYN | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – |
| KS Orzeł Kampinos | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 9% | – | – | – |
| SEMP Ursynów | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 12% | – | – | – |
| KS Orzeł Baniocha | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 15% | 27% | 25% | 14% | – |
| Korona Góra Kalwaria | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 22% | 35% | 19% | 5% |
| CITY WILANÓW | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 20% | 42% | 21% |
| UNIA WARSZAWA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 22% | 71% |