Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: MLKS Józefovia zostaje mistrzem w ponad 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 77,8 pkt (od 65 do 86 w 95% przebiegów). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: LKS Perła Złotokłos (90%), MKP Pogoń II Siedlce (73%), LKS Chlebnia (72%), KPS Food KS Proch Pionki (50%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MLKS Józefovia | 77,8 ± 5,7 | 65–86 | 95% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | GKS Wilga Garwolin | 59,1 ± 6,8 | 45–72 | 2% | 74% | 0% |
| 3 | AP ŻYRARDOWIANKA | 57,5 ± 7,4 | 43–72 | 2% | 61% | 0% |
| 4 | RKS Ursus II W-wa | 51,9 ± 7,3 | 37–65 | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| 5 | RADOMIAK II RADOM | 46,2 ± 7,6 | 31–61 | 0% | 11% | 3% |
| 6 | KS Powiślanka Lipsko | 45,8 ± 7,2 | 32–60 | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 7 | STF CHAMPION | 43,9 ± 7,1 | 29–58 | 0% | 5% | 4% |
| 8 | GKS Drogowiec Jedlińsk | 41,9 ± 7,5 | 28–57 | 0% | 4% | 7% |
| 9 | MKS Pilica Białobrzegi | 42,0 ± 7,4 | 28–57 | 0% | 4% | 7% |
| 10 | GKS TYGRYS HUTA MIŃSKA | 39,2 ± 7,3 | 25–54 | 0% | 1% | 14% |
| 11 | GKS Jodła Jedlnia-Let. | 35,3 ± 7,5 | 22–51 | 0% | 1% | 30% |
| 12 | LKS WEKTRA ZBUCZYN | 32,1 ± 7,2 | 19–47 | 0% | 0% | 45% |
| 13 | KPS Food KS Proch Pionki | 31,3 ± 6,8 | 19–46 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 14 | LKS Chlebnia | 27,3 ± 6,6 | 16–41 | 0% | 0% | 72% |
| 15 | MKP Pogoń II Siedlce | 27,0 ± 6,9 | 15–41 | 0% | 0% | 73% |
| 16 | LKS Perła Złotokłos | 23,0 ± 6,3 | 12–37 | 0% | 0% | 90% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLKS Józefovia | 95% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Wilga Garwolin | – | 43% | 28% | 14% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| AP ŻYRARDOWIANKA | – | 31% | 28% | 18% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKS Ursus II W-wa | – | 12% | 17% | 22% | 18% | 10% | 7% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RADOMIAK II RADOM | – | – | 8% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Powiślanka Lipsko | – | – | 7% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| STF CHAMPION | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Drogowiec Jedlińsk | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Pilica Białobrzegi | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| GKS TYGRYS HUTA MIŃSKA | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| GKS Jodła Jedlnia-Let. | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 6% | – |
| LKS WEKTRA ZBUCZYN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 6% |
| KPS Food KS Proch Pionki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 10% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 6% |
| LKS Chlebnia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 18% | 21% | 19% |
| MKP Pogoń II Siedlce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 15% | 17% | 21% | 20% |
| LKS Perła Złotokłos | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 14% | 23% | 43% |