Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Stal Stalowa Wola P.S.A. II zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 66,6 pkt (od 54 do 78 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Sokół Kamień (27%), ŁKS Łowisko (15%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: TRUCK Kotowa Wola (76%), GAS Łęg Stany (72%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stal Stalowa Wola P.S.A. II | 66,6 ± 6,2 | 54–78 | 46% | 88% | 0% |
| 2 | Sokół Kamień | 63,7 ± 6,9 | 50–77 | 27% | 77% | 0% |
| 3 | ŁKS Łowisko | 61,1 ± 6,8 | 47–74 | 15% | 63% | 0% |
| 4 | Stal Nowa Dęba | 57,8 ± 7,4 | 43–72 | 9% | 43% | 0% |
| 5 | Unia Nowa Sarzyna | 52,6 ± 6,9 | 39–66 | 2% | 15% | 0% |
| 6 | Olimpia Pysznica | 48,2 ± 7,1 | 34–62 | 1% | 7% | 0% |
| 7 | Podlesianka Kamień | 43,8 ± 7,7 | 29–59 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | Sparta Jeżowe | 42,2 ± 7,7 | 27–57 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | LZS Słowianin Grębów | 41,3 ± 7,5 | 27–56 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 10 | LZS Zdziary | 37,9 ± 7,7 | 24–54 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 11 | SMS.SIARKA TARNOBRZEG. II | 33,1 ± 7,7 | 20–49 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 12 | KP Tanew Wólka Tanewska | 30,3 ± 6,8 | 18–44 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 13 | Stal Gorzyce | 30,0 ± 6,7 | 18–44 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 14 | Czarni Lipa | 28,7 ± 6,9 | 16–43 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 15 | GAS Łęg Stany | 19,0 ± 6,3 | 8–32 | 0% | 0% | 72% |
| 16 | TRUCK Kotowa Wola | 18,9 ± 6,2 | 8–32 | 0% | 0% | 76% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Stalowa Wola P.S.A. II | 46% | 27% | 15% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sokół Kamień | 27% | 29% | 21% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ŁKS Łowisko | 15% | 22% | 26% | 18% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stal Nowa Dęba | 9% | 15% | 19% | 21% | 17% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Unia Nowa Sarzyna | – | – | 9% | 20% | 22% | 18% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Olimpia Pysznica | – | – | – | 9% | 15% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Podlesianka Kamień | – | – | – | – | 10% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sparta Jeżowe | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 14% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Słowianin Grębów | – | – | – | – | 5% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Zdziary | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – |
| SMS.SIARKA TARNOBRZEG. II | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 6% | – |
| KP Tanew Wólka Tanewska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 9% | – |
| Stal Gorzyce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 13% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 9% | – |
| Czarni Lipa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 21% | 13% | – |
| GAS Łęg Stany | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 14% | 28% | 44% |
| TRUCK Kotowa Wola | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 33% | 44% |