Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: KS Wasilków zostaje liderem po jesieni w 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 39,6 pkt (od 35 do 42 w 95% przebiegów).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KS Wasilków | 39,6 ± 2,1 | 35–42 | 94% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | KS WARMIA Grajewo | 34,1 ± 2,3 | 29–38 | 6% | 97% | 0% |
| 3 | ŁKS II Łomża | 32,2 ± 2,2 | 27–36 | 0% | 88% | 0% |
| 4 | BKS TUR Bielsk Podlaski | 27,5 ± 2,8 | 22–32 | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| 5 | LUKS CZARNI Czarna Białostocka | 24,5 ± 2,4 | 20–29 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 6 | LKS PROMIEŃ Mońki | 24,6 ± 2,5 | 19–30 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 7 | MLKS WISSA Szczuczyn | 24,5 ± 2,7 | 19–30 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | UKS PIONIER Brańsk | 24,2 ± 2,8 | 19–30 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | KS HETMAN SKŁODOWSCY Tykocin | 24,7 ± 2,9 | 19–31 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 10 | MKS RUCH Wysokie Mazowieckie | 22,8 ± 3,1 | 17–29 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 11 | KS Michałowo | 21,0 ± 3,1 | 15–26 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | MKS SUPRAŚLANKA Supraśl | 15,4 ± 3,0 | 10–22 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 13 | PW HOME LZS Krynki | 12,3 ± 2,6 | 9–18 | 0% | 0% | 24% |
| 14 | SKS POMORZANKA Sejny | 9,4 ± 1,8 | 6–12 | 0% | 0% | 77% |
| 15 | UKS KRYPNIANKA Krypno | 6,8 ± 1,6 | 5–11 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
| 16 | KS Śniadowo | 2,2 ± 1,6 | 1–7 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Wasilków | 94% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS WARMIA Grajewo | 6% | 69% | 23% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ŁKS II Łomża | – | 24% | 64% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| BKS TUR Bielsk Podlaski | – | – | 6% | 40% | 19% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LUKS CZARNI Czarna Białostocka | – | – | – | 8% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS PROMIEŃ Mońki | – | – | – | 8% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS WISSA Szczuczyn | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| UKS PIONIER Brańsk | – | – | – | 11% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS HETMAN SKŁODOWSCY Tykocin | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS RUCH Wysokie Mazowieckie | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 19% | 16% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Michałowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 11% | 18% | 37% | 11% | – | – | – | – |
| MKS SUPRAŚLANKA Supraśl | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 64% | 19% | – | – | – |
| PW HOME LZS Krynki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 56% | 21% | – | – |
| SKS POMORZANKA Sejny | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | 65% | 11% | – |
| UKS KRYPNIANKA Krypno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12% | 84% | – |
| KS Śniadowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 98% |