Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: TS 1946 NIDA Pińczów zostaje liderem po jesieni w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 33,9 pkt (od 28 do 40 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze MKS PARTYZANT Radoszyce (22%), ŁYSICA Bodzentyn (16%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TS 1946 NIDA Pińczów | 33,9 ± 2,9 | 28–40 | 55% | 89% | 0% |
| 2 | MKS PARTYZANT Radoszyce | 31,8 ± 2,8 | 26–37 | 22% | 75% | 0% |
| 3 | ŁYSICA Bodzentyn | 30,9 ± 2,5 | 25–34 | 16% | 78% | 0% |
| 4 | GKS GÓRAL Górno | 28,2 ± 3,2 | 21–35 | 6% | 30% | 0% |
| 5 | MSS KLONÓWKA Masłów | 26,5 ± 3,1 | 20–32 | 1% | 11% | 0% |
| 6 | MKS UNIA Sędziszów | 25,3 ± 3,4 | 18–31 | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 7 | LECHIA Strawczyn | 24,9 ± 2,9 | 19–31 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 8 | GKS 4 ECO ASTRA Piekoszów | 23,2 ± 3,4 | 17–30 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 9 | MKS STAR II Starachowice | 18,3 ± 3,2 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | MKS OLIMPIA-POGOŃ Staszów | 18,8 ± 2,8 | 14–24 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | LZS Samborzec | 18,5 ± 3,3 | 12–25 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 12 | SKS WISŁA Sandomierz | 16,9 ± 3,2 | 11–24 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | KAMIENNA Brody | 16,5 ± 3,2 | 11–23 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 14 | KS PARTYZANT Wodzisław | 9,8 ± 2,4 | 7–16 | 0% | 0% | 93% |
| 15 | ZENIT Chmielnik | 8,7 ± 2,9 | 5–15 | 0% | 0% | 93% |
| 16 | SRKiS VICTORIA Mniów | 4,9 ± 2,1 | 3–10 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TS 1946 NIDA Pińczów | 55% | 22% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS PARTYZANT Radoszyce | 22% | 30% | 23% | 13% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ŁYSICA Bodzentyn | 16% | 33% | 29% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS GÓRAL Górno | 6% | 8% | 16% | 26% | 17% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MSS KLONÓWKA Masłów | – | – | 8% | 17% | 21% | 22% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS UNIA Sędziszów | – | – | 7% | 12% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LECHIA Strawczyn | – | – | – | 8% | 16% | 20% | 23% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS 4 ECO ASTRA Piekoszów | – | – | – | – | 8% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 14% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS STAR II Starachowice | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 11% | – | – | – |
| MKS OLIMPIA-POGOŃ Staszów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 17% | 22% | 21% | 16% | 9% | – | – | – |
| LZS Samborzec | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 11% | – | – | – |
| SKS WISŁA Sandomierz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 13% | 19% | 21% | 28% | – | – | – |
| KAMIENNA Brody | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 13% | 15% | 21% | 30% | 5% | – | – |
| KS PARTYZANT Wodzisław | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 59% | 31% | – |
| ZENIT Chmielnik | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 26% | 57% | 11% |
| SRKiS VICTORIA Mniów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 87% |