Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: GÓRNIK KONIN zostaje liderem po jesieni w 8 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 39,7 pkt (od 34 do 46 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce (10%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GÓRNIK KONIN | 39,7 ± 3,1 | 34–46 | 82% | 99% | 0% |
| 2 | Polonia Golina | 33,3 ± 2,8 | 28–38 | 6% | 69% | 0% |
| 3 | POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 33,3 ± 3,4 | 26–40 | 10% | 67% | 0% |
| 4 | MIESZKO Gniezno | 31,4 ± 3,1 | 25–37 | 2% | 46% | 0% |
| 5 | Polonia CHODZIEŻ | 27,6 ± 3,0 | 22–34 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 6 | PIAST Kobylnica | 27,4 ± 3,1 | 22–34 | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 7 | Obra 1912 Kościan | 27,6 ± 3,1 | 22–34 | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 8 | MKS KANIA Gostyń | 24,9 ± 3,1 | 19–31 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 9 | Kłos BUDZYŃ | 24,4 ± 3,1 | 18–31 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | ASTRA Krotoszyn | 21,2 ± 3,4 | 15–28 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 11 | LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | 20,8 ± 3,2 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 12 | LKS Gołuchów | 19,8 ± 3,0 | 15–26 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 13 | MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | 18,5 ± 3,4 | 12–26 | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 14 | HURAGAN Pobiedziska | 16,7 ± 2,8 | 12–22 | 0% | 0% | 31% |
| 15 | AVIA KAMIONKI | 14,8 ± 3,3 | 8–22 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| 16 | Nielba Wągrowiec | 15,1 ± 3,0 | 10–21 | 0% | 0% | 53% |
| 17 | WARTA Śrem | 14,9 ± 2,8 | 11–21 | 0% | 0% | 63% |
| 18 | OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | 13,3 ± 3,3 | 8–20 | 0% | 0% | 73% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GÓRNIK KONIN | 82% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia Golina | 6% | 38% | 25% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 10% | 26% | 31% | 16% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIESZKO Gniezno | – | 20% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia CHODZIEŻ | – | – | – | 11% | 18% | 22% | 16% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST Kobylnica | – | – | – | 11% | 21% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Obra 1912 Kościan | – | – | 6% | 11% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS KANIA Gostyń | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kłos BUDZYŃ | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ASTRA Krotoszyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 11% | 17% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 17% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Gołuchów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 18% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – |
| MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 5% | – |
| HURAGAN Pobiedziska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 5% |
| AVIA KAMIONKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 17% |
| Nielba Wągrowiec | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 18% |
| WARTA Śrem | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 24% | 20% |
| OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 9% | 16% | 21% | 36% |