Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: GÓRNIK KONIN zostaje mistrzem w 4 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 71,1 pkt (od 55 do 85 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Polonia Golina (26%), MIESZKO Gniezno (16%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: WARTA Śrem (55%), OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. (44%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GÓRNIK KONIN | 71,1 ± 7,7 | 55–85 | 44% | 82% | 0% |
| 2 | Polonia Golina | 67,8 ± 7,4 | 52–81 | 26% | 72% | 0% |
| 3 | MIESZKO Gniezno | 64,9 ± 8,0 | 49–79 | 16% | 59% | 0% |
| 4 | POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 62,3 ± 8,3 | 46–78 | 10% | 43% | 0% |
| 5 | Polonia CHODZIEŻ | 54,8 ± 8,3 | 39–71 | 2% | 14% | 0% |
| 6 | PIAST Kobylnica | 53,2 ± 8,0 | 37–69 | 1% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | Obra 1912 Kościan | 51,9 ± 7,9 | 37–68 | 1% | 7% | 0% |
| 8 | MKS KANIA Gostyń | 51,5 ± 7,8 | 37–67 | 1% | 7% | 0% |
| 9 | Kłos BUDZYŃ | 47,4 ± 8,0 | 32–62 | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 | ASTRA Krotoszyn | 44,1 ± 8,4 | 28–61 | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| 11 | LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | 43,9 ± 8,1 | 29–60 | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| 12 | MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | 41,1 ± 8,5 | 25–58 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| 13 | LKS Gołuchów | 37,5 ± 7,5 | 23–53 | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 14 | AVIA KAMIONKI | 35,5 ± 8,0 | 21–52 | 0% | 0% | 21% |
| 15 | HURAGAN Pobiedziska | 35,3 ± 7,7 | 21–51 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 16 | Nielba Wągrowiec | 32,8 ± 7,7 | 19–49 | 0% | 0% | 32% |
| 17 | OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | 30,3 ± 7,7 | 16–46 | 0% | 0% | 44% |
| 18 | WARTA Śrem | 28,6 ± 7,3 | 16–44 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GÓRNIK KONIN | 44% | 25% | 13% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia Golina | 26% | 28% | 19% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIESZKO Gniezno | 16% | 22% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Nowe Skalmierzyce | 10% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Polonia CHODZIEŻ | – | – | 8% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST Kobylnica | – | – | 6% | 8% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Obra 1912 Kościan | – | – | – | 9% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS KANIA Gostyń | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kłos BUDZYŃ | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – |
| ASTRA Krotoszyn | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – |
| LFDG Polonia 1912 Leszno | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – |
| MEBLORZ SWARZĘDZ | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | – | 6% | – |
| LKS Gołuchów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 8% | – |
| AVIA KAMIONKI | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 8% |
| HURAGAN Pobiedziska | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 8% |
| Nielba Wągrowiec | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| WARTA Śrem | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 22% | 32% |