Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: VICTORIA Ostrzeszów zostaje liderem po jesieni w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 34,0 pkt (od 28 do 39 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze OGNIWO Łąkociny (24%), PŁOMIEŃ Opatów (16%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VICTORIA Ostrzeszów | 34,0 ± 2,8 | 28–39 | 55% | 87% | 0% |
| 2 | OGNIWO Łąkociny | 31,9 ± 2,7 | 26–37 | 24% | 73% | 0% |
| 3 | PŁOMIEŃ Opatów | 31,3 ± 2,9 | 26–37 | 16% | 58% | 0% |
| 4 | STAL Pleszew | 30,2 ± 2,3 | 25–33 | 3% | 55% | 0% |
| 5 | ODOLANOVIA Odolanów | 28,0 ± 3,2 | 22–34 | 3% | 24% | 0% |
| 6 | LAS KUCZKÓW | 23,6 ± 3,2 | 18–30 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 7 | KP SŁUPIA | 21,4 ± 3,2 | 15–27 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 8 | CZARNI Dobrzyca | 21,3 ± 2,6 | 17–26 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | LZS Doruchów | 18,3 ± 2,9 | 13–24 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 10 | OKS 1926 Ostrów Wlkp. | 17,9 ± 2,8 | 13–23 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 11 | MASOVIA Kraszewice | 16,4 ± 2,9 | 11–23 | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 12 | KS Rogaszyce | 15,9 ± 3,0 | 10–22 | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 13 | PIAST Czekanów | 14,7 ± 3,1 | 9–21 | 0% | 0% | 32% |
| 14 | PELIKAN Grabów | 13,0 ± 3,1 | 7–19 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| 15 | OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. II | 11,1 ± 2,9 | 6–17 | 0% | 0% | 82% |
| 16 | HURAGAN Szczury | 3,5 ± 2,1 | 1–8 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VICTORIA Ostrzeszów | 55% | 19% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OGNIWO Łąkociny | 24% | 29% | 20% | 17% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PŁOMIEŃ Opatów | 16% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| STAL Pleszew | – | 20% | 32% | 28% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ODOLANOVIA Odolanów | – | 9% | 12% | 19% | 38% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LAS KUCZKÓW | – | – | – | – | 11% | 36% | 20% | 14% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KP SŁUPIA | – | – | – | – | 6% | 18% | 26% | 18% | 14% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CZARNI Dobrzyca | – | – | – | – | – | 17% | 24% | 24% | 15% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Doruchów | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 13% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – |
| OKS 1926 Ostrów Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 9% | – | – | – |
| MASOVIA Kraszewice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 10% | – | – |
| KS Rogaszyce | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 18% | 17% | 11% | – | – |
| PIAST Czekanów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 13% | – |
| PELIKAN Grabów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 13% | 19% | 27% | 20% | – |
| OSTROVIA 1909 Ostrów Wlkp. II | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 22% | 57% | – |
| HURAGAN Szczury | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96% |