Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: Pogoń II Szczecin zostaje liderem po jesieni w ponad 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 38,7 pkt (od 33 do 42 w 95% przebiegów).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń II Szczecin | 38,7 ± 2,6 | 33–42 | 97% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | Kotwica Kołobrzeg | 29,3 ± 3,0 | 23–35 | 1% | 49% | 0% |
| 3 | Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal | 28,6 ± 3,0 | 22–34 | 1% | 39% | 0% |
| 4 | Świt II Szczecin | 28,0 ± 3,2 | 21–34 | 0% | 41% | 0% |
| 5 | Arkonia Szczecin | 27,2 ± 3,2 | 21–33 | 1% | 28% | 0% |
| 6 | Gwardia Koszalin | 26,9 ± 2,8 | 22–32 | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 7 | Biali Sądów | 25,7 ± 3,0 | 20–31 | 0% | 12% | 0% |
| 8 | Sparta Gryfice | 24,5 ± 3,2 | 18–31 | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| 9 | Astra Ustronie Morskie | 22,9 ± 3,0 | 17–29 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 10 | Dąb Dębno | 21,1 ± 2,8 | 16–27 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | Iskierka Szczecin | 20,0 ± 3,2 | 14–26 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | Ina Elektrobim Ińsko | 12,0 ± 2,4 | 9–18 | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| 13 | Chemik Police | 10,6 ± 2,5 | 7–16 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| 14 | Orzeł Wałcz | 10,0 ± 2,9 | 5–16 | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| 15 | Pogoń Barlinek | 9,8 ± 2,9 | 5–16 | 0% | 0% | 60% |
| 16 | GKS Manowo | 8,2 ± 2,9 | 4–14 | 0% | 0% | 85% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń II Szczecin | 97% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Kotwica Kołobrzeg | – | 28% | 21% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal | – | 18% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Świt II Szczecin | – | 23% | 19% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Arkonia Szczecin | – | 14% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gwardia Koszalin | – | 9% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Biali Sądów | – | – | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sparta Gryfice | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Astra Ustronie Morskie | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dąb Dębno | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 18% | 29% | 29% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Iskierka Szczecin | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 13% | 22% | 45% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ina Elektrobim Ińsko | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 30% | 27% | 22% | 15% | – |
| Chemik Police | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 19% | 23% | 21% | 22% | 11% |
| Orzeł Wałcz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20% | 19% | 22% | 22% | 15% |
| Pogoń Barlinek | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 20% | 19% | 20% | 21% |
| GKS Manowo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 15% | 20% | 50% |