Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: LKS ORLĘTA Kielce zostaje liderem po jesieni w 6 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 42,8 pkt (od 37 do 47 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze GKS ARKA Pawłów (36%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS ORLĘTA Kielce | 42,8 ± 2,8 | 37–47 | 63% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | GKS ARKA Pawłów | 41,2 ± 3,0 | 35–48 | 36% | 99% | 0% |
| 3 | MLKS SPARTA Kazimierza Wielka | 35,2 ± 3,4 | 29–42 | 1% | 67% | 0% |
| 4 | MKS NEPTUN Końskie | 30,2 ± 2,9 | 25–35 | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 5 | GKS Nowiny | 30,6 ± 2,9 | 25–37 | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 6 | KS VICTORIA 2015 Skalbmierz | 29,8 ± 3,5 | 23–36 | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 7 | GKS Rudki | 25,4 ± 3,0 | 19–31 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | OKS Opatów | 24,5 ± 3,2 | 18–31 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | MGKS SPARTAKUS Daleszyce | 24,9 ± 3,3 | 19–32 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | KORONA SA III Kielce | 23,9 ± 3,5 | 17–30 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | KKP KORONA Kielce | 23,2 ± 3,0 | 17–29 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | LKS KLIMONTOWIANKA Klimontów | 19,5 ± 3,0 | 14–25 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 13 | MZKS ALIT Ożarów | 18,7 ± 3,3 | 12–26 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 14 | MKS WIERNA Małogoszcz | 18,8 ± 3,1 | 13–25 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 15 | INDUSTRIA WICHER Miedziana Góra | 17,7 ± 2,8 | 13–23 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 16 | MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna | 11,0 ± 3,1 | 6–18 | 0% | 0% | 86% |
| 17 | KS HETMAN Włoszczowa | 8,1 ± 2,7 | 4–14 | 0% | 0% | 98% |
| 18 | MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów | 6,8 ± 2,3 | 4–12 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS ORLĘTA Kielce | 63% | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS ARKA Pawłów | 36% | 52% | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS SPARTA Kazimierza Wielka | – | 11% | 55% | 18% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS NEPTUN Końskie | – | – | 12% | 24% | 24% | 22% | 10% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Nowiny | – | – | 8% | 27% | 25% | 18% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS VICTORIA 2015 Skalbmierz | – | – | 12% | 22% | 21% | 17% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Rudki | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKS Opatów | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MGKS SPARTAKUS Daleszyce | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KORONA SA III Kielce | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KKP KORONA Kielce | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – |
| LKS KLIMONTOWIANKA Klimontów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 14% | 20% | 20% | 17% | 10% | – | – | – |
| MZKS ALIT Ożarów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 14% | 17% | 20% | 23% | – | – | – |
| MKS WIERNA Małogoszcz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 20% | 21% | – | – | – |
| INDUSTRIA WICHER Miedziana Góra | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 17% | 28% | 29% | 8% | – | – |
| MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 59% | 21% | 6% |
| KS HETMAN Włoszczowa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | 51% | 29% |
| MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 27% | 65% |