Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: LKS ORLĘTA Kielce zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 79,6 pkt (od 65 do 92 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze GKS ARKA Pawłów (42%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów (96%), KS HETMAN Włoszczowa (90%), MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna (62%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS ORLĘTA Kielce | 79,6 ± 7,0 | 65–92 | 53% | 96% | 0% |
| 2 | GKS ARKA Pawłów | 78,1 ± 7,2 | 63–91 | 42% | 94% | 0% |
| 3 | MLKS SPARTA Kazimierza Wielka | 65,5 ± 7,8 | 50–80 | 4% | 49% | 0% |
| 4 | MKS NEPTUN Końskie | 59,8 ± 7,4 | 45–74 | 0% | 19% | 0% |
| 5 | KS VICTORIA 2015 Skalbmierz | 58,3 ± 8,3 | 42–74 | 0% | 16% | 0% |
| 6 | GKS Nowiny | 57,7 ± 7,7 | 43–73 | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 7 | OKS Opatów | 52,8 ± 7,5 | 38–67 | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 8 | KORONA SA III Kielce | 50,4 ± 8,3 | 34–67 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 9 | GKS Rudki | 49,2 ± 7,5 | 35–64 | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 10 | MGKS SPARTAKUS Daleszyce | 46,9 ± 7,8 | 32–63 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 | KKP KORONA Kielce | 46,7 ± 7,4 | 32–62 | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 | LKS KLIMONTOWIANKA Klimontów | 43,0 ± 7,9 | 28–58 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | MZKS ALIT Ożarów | 40,4 ± 8,0 | 25–57 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 14 | MKS WIERNA Małogoszcz | 38,6 ± 7,5 | 25–54 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| 15 | INDUSTRIA WICHER Miedziana Góra | 31,2 ± 6,8 | 19–45 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 16 | MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna | 26,5 ± 7,3 | 13–42 | 0% | 0% | 62% |
| 17 | KS HETMAN Włoszczowa | 19,9 ± 6,5 | 9–33 | 0% | 0% | 90% |
| 18 | MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów | 17,2 ± 5,8 | 7–29 | 0% | 0% | 96% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS ORLĘTA Kielce | 53% | 36% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS ARKA Pawłów | 42% | 41% | 11% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MLKS SPARTA Kazimierza Wielka | – | 12% | 33% | 19% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS NEPTUN Końskie | – | – | 15% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS VICTORIA 2015 Skalbmierz | – | – | 14% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Nowiny | – | – | 10% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKS Opatów | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KORONA SA III Kielce | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| GKS Rudki | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| MGKS SPARTAKUS Daleszyce | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| KKP KORONA Kielce | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS KLIMONTOWIANKA Klimontów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – |
| MZKS ALIT Ożarów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 12% | – | – | – |
| MKS WIERNA Małogoszcz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 14% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 6% | – | – |
| INDUSTRIA WICHER Miedziana Góra | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 19% | 29% | 23% | 9% | – |
| MKS GRANAT Skarżysko-Kamienna | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 20% | 35% | 18% | 9% |
| KS HETMAN Włoszczowa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 18% | 37% | 35% |
| MKS ORLICZ Suchedniów | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | 32% | 53% |