Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. zostaje liderem po jesieni w 9 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 38,3 pkt (od 33 do 41 w 95% przebiegów).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 38,3 ± 2,3 | 33–41 | 94% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 32,2 ± 3,1 | 26–37 | 6% | 84% | 0% |
| 3 | MTS PAWŁOWICE | 28,6 ± 3,2 | 22–34 | 0% | 44% | 0% |
| 4 | PKS Racot | 27,8 ± 2,5 | 22–31 | 0% | 38% | 0% |
| 5 | POGOŃ Śmigiel | 26,4 ± 2,4 | 22–31 | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 6 | JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | 25,6 ± 2,7 | 20–30 | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | LUKS Stare Bojanowo | 26,0 ± 2,8 | 21–32 | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 8 | RUCH Bojanowo | 23,4 ± 2,6 | 18–29 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | 19,9 ± 3,0 | 14–26 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | LZS Cielcza | 17,2 ± 2,9 | 12–24 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 11 | BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | 17,9 ± 2,5 | 13–23 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 12 | HELIOS Bucz | 15,3 ± 2,9 | 11–21 | 0% | 0% | 26% |
| 13 | GKS Jaraczewo | 14,9 ± 2,7 | 10–20 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 14 | WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | 14,3 ± 2,8 | 10–20 | 0% | 0% | 39% |
| 15 | BRENEWIA Wijewo | 10,4 ± 2,5 | 7–16 | 0% | 0% | 91% |
| 16 | ZAWISZA Dolsk | 3,5 ± 2,1 | 1–8 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 94% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 6% | 61% | 18% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MTS PAWŁOWICE | – | 19% | 25% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PKS Racot | – | 8% | 30% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Śmigiel | – | – | 9% | 21% | 24% | 20% | 14% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | – | – | 7% | 12% | 16% | 23% | 21% | 13% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LUKS Stare Bojanowo | – | – | 9% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RUCH Bojanowo | – | – | – | – | 8% | 11% | 20% | 31% | 15% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 14% | 28% | 19% | 15% | 7% | – | – | – | – |
| LZS Cielcza | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15% | 20% | 22% | 16% | 10% | 9% | – | – |
| BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13% | 24% | 22% | 18% | 11% | 6% | – | – |
| HELIOS Bucz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 24% | 22% | – | – |
| GKS Jaraczewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 13% | 24% | 24% | 18% | 7% | – |
| WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 15% | 22% | 32% | 7% | – |
| BRENEWIA Wijewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 11% | 76% | – |
| ZAWISZA Dolsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96% |