Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. zostaje mistrzem w 8 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 72,4 pkt (od 59 do 83 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna (12%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: ZAWISZA Dolsk (99%), BRENEWIA Wijewo (83%), WISŁA Borek Wlkp. (33%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 72,4 ± 6,2 | 59–83 | 80% | 98% | 0% |
| 2 | RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 62,6 ± 7,2 | 48–76 | 12% | 75% | 0% |
| 3 | PKS Racot | 57,9 ± 6,6 | 44–70 | 4% | 52% | 0% |
| 4 | MTS PAWŁOWICE | 53,2 ± 7,4 | 39–68 | 1% | 26% | 0% |
| 5 | POGOŃ Śmigiel | 52,4 ± 7,1 | 38–66 | 1% | 21% | 0% |
| 6 | JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | 50,9 ± 7,2 | 36–65 | 1% | 16% | 0% |
| 7 | LUKS Stare Bojanowo | 47,9 ± 7,2 | 33–62 | 0% | 8% | 1% |
| 8 | RUCH Bojanowo | 45,2 ± 7,2 | 31–59 | 0% | 3% | 1% |
| 9 | PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | 40,3 ± 7,6 | 26–55 | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| 10 | LZS Cielcza | 37,1 ± 7,0 | 24–51 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 11 | BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | 34,8 ± 7,0 | 22–49 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| 12 | GKS Jaraczewo | 32,3 ± 6,8 | 19–46 | 0% | 0% | 23% |
| 13 | HELIOS Bucz | 30,5 ± 6,9 | 18–45 | 0% | 0% | 31% |
| 14 | WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | 30,5 ± 6,9 | 18–44 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 15 | BRENEWIA Wijewo | 21,6 ± 6,2 | 11–35 | 0% | 0% | 83% |
| 16 | ZAWISZA Dolsk | 12,4 ± 5,5 | 3–25 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 16 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIAŁY ORZEŁ Koźmin Wlkp. | 80% | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RYDZYNIAK Rydzyna | 12% | 42% | 21% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PKS Racot | – | 20% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MTS PAWŁOWICE | – | 9% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POGOŃ Śmigiel | – | 6% | 14% | 20% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JUNA-TRANS Stare Oborzyska | – | – | 10% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 10% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LUKS Stare Bojanowo | – | – | 6% | 9% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RUCH Bojanowo | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – |
| PIAST NOWY BELĘCIN | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| LZS Cielcza | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – |
| BŁĘKITNI KĄKOLEWO | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 11% | – | – |
| GKS Jaraczewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 8% | – |
| HELIOS Bucz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 11% | – |
| WISŁA Borek Wlkp. | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 10% | – |
| BRENEWIA Wijewo | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 19% | 48% | 15% |
| ZAWISZA Dolsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14% | 81% |