Uwaga. W teście na sezonie 2025/26 model w tej lidze nie był lepszy od prostego punktu odniesienia — traktuj prognozy ostrożnie.
Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji rundy jesiennej: MKS PIASECZNO zostaje liderem po jesieni w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 35,7 pkt (od 30 do 40 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na pozycję lidera mają jeszcze RKS Ursus W-wa (19%), MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. (17%), SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. (15%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec rundy jesiennej
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów opublikowanego terminarza jesieni.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(lider po jesieni) | P(top 3) | P(ostatnia trójka) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKS PIASECZNO | 35,7 ± 2,7 | 30–40 | 46% | 89% | 0% |
| 2 | RKS Ursus W-wa | 33,6 ± 3,0 | 28–39 | 19% | 66% | 0% |
| 3 | MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. | 33,3 ± 2,9 | 27–39 | 17% | 62% | 0% |
| 4 | SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. | 33,1 ± 3,2 | 27–39 | 15% | 52% | 0% |
| 5 | MKS Makowianka Maków Maz. | 29,3 ± 3,1 | 23–36 | 2% | 14% | 0% |
| 6 | POLONIA II WARSZAWA S.A. | 28,1 ± 3,0 | 22–34 | 1% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | KS Legionovia | 26,6 ± 3,3 | 20–34 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 8 | SKS Oskar Przysucha | 26,6 ± 3,1 | 21–33 | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 9 | RKP 1926 Broń Radom | 25,9 ± 2,9 | 20–32 | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 10 | KS Mszczonowianka | 23,1 ± 3,1 | 17–29 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | UKS Talent Warszawa | 21,8 ± 3,1 | 16–28 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | KS Błonianka | 21,2 ± 3,0 | 16–27 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 13 | LKS Mazur Karczew | 20,2 ± 3,2 | 15–27 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 14 | Enea Energia Kozienice | 19,4 ± 2,9 | 15–25 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 15 | MLKS Nadnarwianka | 15,1 ± 2,9 | 10–21 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 16 | MLKS Victoria Sulejówek | 12,4 ± 3,1 | 7–18 | 0% | 0% | 71% |
| 17 | KS Łomianki | 10,7 ± 2,5 | 7–16 | 0% | 0% | 92% |
| 18 | MKS Przasnysz | 6,7 ± 2,6 | 3–12 | 0% | 0% | 99% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy jesień na danym miejscu. 1 = lider, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS PIASECZNO | 46% | 27% | 16% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKS Ursus W-wa | 19% | 24% | 22% | 17% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. | 17% | 23% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. | 15% | 18% | 20% | 19% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Makowianka Maków Maz. | – | – | 9% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POLONIA II WARSZAWA S.A. | – | – | 6% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Legionovia | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 17% | 12% | 12% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SKS Oskar Przysucha | – | – | – | 5% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 12% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKP 1926 Broń Radom | – | – | – | – | 8% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Mszczonowianka | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 14% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| UKS Talent Warszawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 11% | 6% | – | – | – |
| KS Błonianka | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 11% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 14% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Mazur Karczew | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 14% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – |
| Enea Energia Kozienice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9% | 14% | 24% | 29% | 13% | – | – | – |
| MLKS Nadnarwianka | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 14% | 41% | 26% | 6% | – |
| MLKS Victoria Sulejówek | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 21% | 40% | 24% | 8% |
| KS Łomianki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 25% | 54% | 12% |
| MKS Przasnysz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15% | 79% |