Uwaga. W teście na sezonie 2025/26 model w tej lidze nie był lepszy od prostego punktu odniesienia — traktuj prognozy ostrożnie.
Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: MKS PIASECZNO zostaje mistrzem w 3 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 67,3 pkt (od 52 do 81 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze RKS Ursus W-wa (25%), MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. (23%), SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. (10%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: MKS Przasnysz (98%), KS Łomianki (89%), MLKS Victoria Sulejówek (71%), MLKS Nadnarwianka (50%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKS PIASECZNO | 67,3 ± 7,7 | 52–81 | 29% | 66% | 0% |
| 2 | RKS Ursus W-wa | 66,8 ± 7,6 | 51–81 | 25% | 65% | 0% |
| 3 | MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. | 66,1 ± 7,5 | 51–80 | 23% | 61% | 0% |
| 4 | SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. | 61,4 ± 7,8 | 46–76 | 10% | 36% | 0% |
| 5 | POLONIA II WARSZAWA S.A. | 60,0 ± 7,5 | 45–74 | 7% | 30% | 0% |
| 6 | MKS Makowianka Maków Maz. | 57,2 ± 8,0 | 42–72 | 4% | 19% | 0% |
| 7 | RKP 1926 Broń Radom | 53,1 ± 7,8 | 38–68 | 1% | 8% | 1% |
| 8 | KS Legionovia | 52,0 ± 8,1 | 37–68 | 1% | 7% | 1% |
| 9 | SKS Oskar Przysucha | 49,1 ± 7,7 | 35–64 | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| 10 | KS Błonianka | 46,4 ± 7,7 | 32–63 | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| 11 | KS Mszczonowianka | 46,2 ± 7,7 | 32–62 | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| 12 | LKS Mazur Karczew | 41,1 ± 8,0 | 26–57 | 0% | 0% | 19% |
| 13 | UKS Talent Warszawa | 39,8 ± 7,7 | 25–56 | 0% | 0% | 23% |
| 14 | Enea Energia Kozienice | 37,5 ± 7,7 | 24–54 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 15 | MLKS Nadnarwianka | 33,8 ± 7,7 | 19–50 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 16 | MLKS Victoria Sulejówek | 30,4 ± 7,4 | 17–46 | 0% | 0% | 71% |
| 17 | KS Łomianki | 24,9 ± 6,8 | 13–39 | 0% | 0% | 89% |
| 18 | MKS Przasnysz | 18,1 ± 6,6 | 7–33 | 0% | 0% | 98% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS PIASECZNO | 29% | 21% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKS Ursus W-wa | 25% | 23% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS PODLASIE SOKOŁÓW PODL. | 23% | 21% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SS HUTNIK W-WA SP. Z O.O. | 10% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POLONIA II WARSZAWA S.A. | 7% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Makowianka Maków Maz. | – | 6% | 9% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| RKP 1926 Broń Radom | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Legionovia | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SKS Oskar Przysucha | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Błonianka | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| KS Mszczonowianka | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – | – |
| LKS Mazur Karczew | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 6% | – | – |
| UKS Talent Warszawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 8% | – | – |
| Enea Energia Kozienice | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 11% | 5% | – |
| MLKS Nadnarwianka | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 11% | – |
| MLKS Victoria Sulejówek | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 12% | 18% | 26% | 19% | 7% |
| KS Łomianki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 10% | 20% | 40% | 19% |
| MKS Przasnysz | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 19% | 69% |