Na podstawie 2 000 symulacji reszty sezonu: Igloopol Dębica zostaje mistrzem w 5 na 10 symulacji i zdobywa średnio 72,0 pkt (od 57 do 85 w 95% przebiegów). Realne szanse na tytuł mają jeszcze Błękitni Ropczyce (40%). Najbardziej zagrożone spadkiem: Pogoń Leżajsk (91%), Strug Tyczyn (90%), Wisłok Wiśniowa (80%), KS Radomyślanka Geyer&Hosaja Radomyśl Wielki (54%), Czarni 1910 Jasło (39%).
Prognoza tabeli na koniec sezonu
Na podstawie 2000 symulacji pozostałych meczów sezonu.
| # | Drużyna | Pkt śr ± sd | 95% przedział | P(mistrz) | P(top 3) | P(spadek) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Igloopol Dębica | 72,0 ± 7,4 | 57–85 | 48% | 89% | 0% |
| 2 | Błękitni Ropczyce | 71,0 ± 7,2 | 56–84 | 40% | 86% | 0% |
| 3 | KS Wiązownica | 58,9 ± 8,0 | 43–74 | 4% | 31% | 0% |
| 4 | Górnik Strachocina | 57,7 ± 8,0 | 42–73 | 3% | 26% | 1% |
| 5 | Ekoball Stal Sanok | 57,5 ± 8,1 | 41–73 | 3% | 25% | 1% |
| 6 | Stal II Rzeszów S.A. | 55,4 ± 7,9 | 39–70 | 1% | 16% | 2% |
| 7 | Pogoń - Sokół II Lubaczów Sp. z o.o. | 53,8 ± 8,2 | 37–69 | 1% | 15% | 2% |
| 8 | ZKS Izolator Boguchwała | 51,7 ± 8,2 | 36–68 | 1% | 8% | 4% |
| 9 | SP Sokół Nisko | 44,8 ± 8,3 | 29–61 | 0% | 2% | 17% |
| 10 | MKS Sokół Sieniawa | 42,8 ± 8,0 | 28–59 | 0% | 0% | 24% |
| 11 | SPEC Stal Łańcut | 40,4 ± 7,8 | 26–57 | 0% | 1% | 31% |
| 12 | KS Legion Pilzno | 39,9 ± 7,5 | 26–55 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 13 | Polonia Przemyśl | 40,0 ± 7,6 | 26–55 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| 14 | Czarni 1910 Jasło | 39,2 ± 8,0 | 25–55 | 0% | 0% | 39% |
| 15 | KS Radomyślanka Geyer&Hosaja Radomyśl Wielki | 36,1 ± 8,5 | 20–53 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| 16 | Wisłok Wiśniowa | 30,5 ± 7,3 | 18–46 | 0% | 0% | 80% |
| 17 | Strug Tyczyn | 27,2 ± 7,1 | 16–43 | 0% | 0% | 90% |
| 18 | Pogoń Leżajsk | 26,0 ± 7,7 | 12–42 | 0% | 0% | 91% |
Heatmapa pozycji
Jak często drużyna kończy sezon na danym miejscu. 1 = mistrz, 18 = ostatnie miejsce.
| Drużyna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igloopol Dębica | 48% | 30% | 12% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Błękitni Ropczyce | 40% | 33% | 14% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KS Wiązownica | – | 10% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Górnik Strachocina | – | 7% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ekoball Stal Sanok | – | 8% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stal II Rzeszów S.A. | – | – | 11% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pogoń - Sokół II Lubaczów Sp. z o.o. | – | – | 9% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ZKS Izolator Boguchwała | – | – | 5% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SP Sokół Nisko | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 8% | – | – | – | – |
| MKS Sokół Sieniawa | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – | – | – |
| SPEC Stal Łańcut | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 6% | – | – |
| KS Legion Pilzno | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 6% | – | – |
| Polonia Przemyśl | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 7% | – | – |
| Czarni 1910 Jasło | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 6% | – |
| KS Radomyślanka Geyer&Hosaja Radomyśl Wielki | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 6% |
| Wisłok Wiśniowa | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 15% |
| Strug Tyczyn | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% | 16% | 27% | 30% |
| Pogoń Leżajsk | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | 8% | 14% | 23% | 41% |